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Applied and bridge studies study record
Environment, climate & resourcesCalibration Against Official US Valuation Methods: VSL and the Social Cost of Carbon
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
The paper shows that the ledger's default values are consistent with federal methods, explains the one deliberate departure (intergenerational discounting), and establishes a conformance requirement to prevent future discrepancies. The objection operates at three levels. First, it challenges the specific numerical values used
WHAT'S NEW · The welfare-ledger's default VSL of $11.5 million (2023 USD) falls within the federal range of $7.4–$12.5 million. The ledger's default SCC of $190/ton (2023 USD) matches the EPA's 2023 interim central estimate at a 2% near-Ramsey discount rate. The ledger's only deliberate departure is a zero pure rate of time preference for intergenerational discounting, justified by the Missing System Theory. A conformance requirement is proposed: each domain paper must cite federal VSL and SCC values and justify any departures.
The paper addresses a foreseeable objection to the welfare-ledger framework: that its VSL and SCC values depart from official U.S. federal methods. It shows that the ledger's default VSL of $11.5 million falls within the federal range, and its default SCC of $190/ton matches the EPA's 2023 interim estimate. The one deliberate departure—a zero pure rate of time preference for intergenerational discounting—is justified by the Missing System Theory. A conformance requirement and falsification condition are proposed to ensure transparency and robustness.