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System Asset Pricing Model PROGRAM · ERIK POSTNIEKS · 2026
System Asset Pricing Model Master Tables
61 studied-domain measurement records; rank order withheld pending admission · Annual system-welfare loss divided by annual industry revenue (Π, capital pi), with ΔW and Π on the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary · Updated 2026-06-02
Source: evidence note. Public aggregate and point estimates are withheld pending admitted re-estimation. The top-15 core records are the current Decision Accounting, Missing System Theory, and foundational route above the domain measurement; welfare beta is shown only where annual industry revenue Π (capital pi) is the meaningful denominator.
Aggregate reconciliation: the ranked total is reproduced from the signed rank/aggregate receipt across all admitted rows. The table keeps all 61 studied rows visible, each with its source-derived Monte Carlo interval. WMD has no commercial revenue base. Gene Drives is pre-revenue. Sovereign Debt is reconciled to developing-country external-debt interest.
How to read the table: βW, pronounced beta W, is annual system-welfare loss divided by annual industry revenue Π (capital pi); ΔW (delta W) is the annual system-welfare loss for the domain. An interval appears only after an evidence-backed simulation passes the admission gate; current legacy intervals are withheld. ΔW and Π must use the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary.
Precision note: no aggregate or domain interval is public until the channel evidence, denominator, overlap treatment, dependence model, and rerun hash pass the admission gate.
WORKING-PAPER STATUSThe theory, βW estimates, and policy paths are proposed research material, not peer-reviewed canon or legal advice. Use the proof chapter for theorem boundaries, the 61-domain table for revenue-basis estimates, and Policy Lab for jurisdiction-specific starting points; each page states its current evidence status.
Crosswalk to Domain Theorems
Use this page as the canonical measurement table for admitted welfare beta, simulation intervals, annual industry revenue Π (capital pi), and annual system-welfare loss ΔW (delta W). Numerical fields are released with source-derived Monte Carlo intervals. Use Domain Theorems as the proof-status registry. Both pages use the same 61 studied-domain corpus, but one groups rows by measurement treatment and the other groups claims by theorem/status label.
Count crosswalk: Domain Tables uses measurement categories: impossibility, intractability, boundary/comparator, and outside βW frame. Domain Theorems uses proof-status categories. Classification differences are not a second corpus: every row traces back to the same 61 studied-domain list.
Status: these are proposed working-paper classifications and modeled welfare-beta estimates, not peer-reviewed canon. Use the welfare-beta methodology manual for denominator discipline, model-based p05–p95 interval interpretation, and canonical versus provisional row status.
STUDIED DOMAINS
61
IMPOSSIBILITY
14
INTRACTABILITY
30
BOUNDARY
14
MAX WELFARE BETA
re-estimation required
TOTAL ANNUAL LOSS
WITHHELD
| RANK | DOMAIN | THEOREM | βW | MC p5–p95 (admitted) | Π ($B) | ΔW ($B) | CATEGORY | TYPE | REPAIR ACTION | STUDY RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Alcohol | The Prohibition Paradox | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Neurochemical / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Algorithmic Pricing | The Tacit Collusion Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Antimicrobial Resistance | The Efficacy Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Evolutionary | IMPOSSIBILITY | EXPOSURE REDUCTION Reduce exposure and cleanup costs; the physical or technical floor remains | STUDY |
| — | Arms Exports | The Geopolitical Externality Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Aviation Emissions | The Energy Density Lock-in | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Physical | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Big Tech Platform Monopoly | The Acquisition Kill-Zone | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | STRUCTURAL SEPARATION Separate the conflicted role or ban the self-dealing structure | STUDY |
| — | Bitcoin Proof-of-Work (PoW) Mining | The Protocol Welfare Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Cement (Calcination Floor) | The Calcination Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Thermodynamic (Conservation of Mass) | IMPOSSIBILITY | EXPOSURE REDUCTION Reduce exposure and cleanup costs; the physical or technical floor remains | STUDY |
| — | Child Labor in Global Supply Chains | The Cost Arbitrage Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Economic / Jurisdictional | INTRACTABILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Coal Combustion | The Carbon Combustion Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Chemical | IMPOSSIBILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Commercial Real Estate | The Extend-and-Pretend Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | REVIEW Check the domain evidence before naming a repair action | STUDY |
| — | Conflict Minerals and Blood Diamonds | The Fungibility Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Physical / Jurisdictional | INTRACTABILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Credit Rating Agency Oligopoly | The Issuer-Pays Corruption Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Informational | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Cybercrime and Ransomware | The Attribution Impossibility | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Computational / Jurisdictional | INTRACTABILITY | LIABILITY RULE Shift the cost to the actor, platform, or gatekeeper that enables the harm | STUDY |
| — | Data Brokerage and Surveillance Capitalism | The Consent Fabrication Trap | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Informational / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Deep-Sea Mining | The Abyssal Recovery Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Geochemical / Physical | IMPOSSIBILITY | CAP OR MORATORIUM Limit or pause the activity until the system harm is measured and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Defense Procurement | The Cost-Plus Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Deforestation & Industrial Logging | The Carbon Stock Irreversibility | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Chemical | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Electronic Waste Export and Toxic Dumping | The Basel Convention Evasion | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Jurisdictional / Classification | INTRACTABILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Factory Farming and Industrial Animal Agriculture | The Protein Demand Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Thermodynamic | IMPOSSIBILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Fast Fashion | The Textile Throughput Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Thermodynamic / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Firearms | The Constitutional Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Constitutional / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | LICENSE CONDITION Make the license depend on proof that system harm is recorded and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Fisheries | The External Forcing Impossibility | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Climate / Jurisdictional | INTRACTABILITY | CAP OR MORATORIUM Limit or pause the activity until the system harm is measured and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Forever Chemicals (PFAS) | The Molecular Persistence Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Thermodynamic | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Frontier AI | The Alignment Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Computational / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | FX-Fixing Benchmark Governance | The Self-Referential Pricing Trap | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Informational | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Gambling | The Algorithmic Exploitation Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | LICENSE CONDITION Make the license depend on proof that system harm is recorded and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Gene Drives | The Ecological Ratchet Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Evolutionary | OUTSIDE βW | SPECIAL MODEL Use a separate risk model before ranking or reform design | STUDY |
| — | Gig Economy Platforms | Control / Comparator | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Legal; βW < 1 | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Groundwater / Ogallala Aquifer | The Hydrological Recharge Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Geochemical | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Human Trafficking and Modern Slavery | The Demand Indestructibility | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Jurisdictional / Economic | INTRACTABILITY | LIABILITY RULE Shift the cost to the actor, platform, or gatekeeper that enables the harm | STUDY |
| — | Illicit Drug Trade | The Prohibition Profit Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Economic | INTRACTABILITY | LIABILITY RULE Shift the cost to the actor, platform, or gatekeeper that enables the harm | STUDY |
| — | Industrial Agriculture Methane | The Enteric Fermentation Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Industrial Monoculture | The Genetic Uniformity Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Evolutionary | IMPOSSIBILITY | CAP OR MORATORIUM Limit or pause the activity until the system harm is measured and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Insurance & Climate Risk Mispricing | The Fat-Tail Mispricing Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Statistical / Physical | IMPOSSIBILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Mining & Rare Earth Extraction | The Extraction Irreversibility Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Geochemical | IMPOSSIBILITY | CAP OR MORATORIUM Limit or pause the activity until the system harm is measured and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Nuclear Fission | Control / Comparator | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Physical (Radioactive Decay); βW < 1 | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Oil & Gas Extraction | The Combustion Lock-in Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Chemical | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Opioid Ecosystem | The Supply Chain Irreversibility | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Orbital Debris | The Orbital Congestion Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Physical / Jurisdictional | INTRACTABILITY | EXPOSURE REDUCTION Reduce exposure and cleanup costs; the physical or technical floor remains | STUDY |
| — | Palm Oil | The Deforestation Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Ecological | IMPOSSIBILITY | SUPPLY-CHAIN RULE Condition market access on traceable, enforceable evidence records | STUDY |
| — | Payday Lending and Predatory Consumer Finance | The Poverty Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Financial / Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Persistent Organic Pollutants | The Persistent Accumulation Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Chemical | IMPOSSIBILITY | EXPOSURE REDUCTION Reduce exposure and cleanup costs; the physical or technical floor remains | STUDY |
| — | Pharmacy Benefit Managers | The Vertical Integration Extraction Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | STRUCTURAL SEPARATION Separate the conflicted role or ban the self-dealing structure | STUDY |
| — | Plastics and Petrochemical Waste | The Thermodynamic Degradation Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Thermodynamic | IMPOSSIBILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Platform Monopoly | The Gatekeeper Ratchet | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | STRUCTURAL SEPARATION Separate the conflicted role or ban the self-dealing structure | STUDY |
| — | Private Equity in Healthcare | The Return Requirement Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Financial | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Private Military Contractors | The Accountability Void | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Jurisdictional / Legal | INTRACTABILITY | LICENSE CONDITION Make the license depend on proof that system harm is recorded and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Private Prisons & Carceral System | The Recidivism Incentive Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | LICENSE CONDITION Make the license depend on proof that system harm is recorded and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Proof-of-Stake Protocols | The Cross-Chain Welfare Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | REVIEW Check the domain evidence before naming a repair action | STUDY |
| — | Shipping & Maritime Emissions | The Flag State Arbitrage Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Jurisdictional / Physical | INTRACTABILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Social Media & Youth Mental Health | The Engagement Optimization Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Computational / Biological | IMPOSSIBILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Sovereign Debt & Intergenerational Extraction | The Intergenerational Extraction Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Temporal | OUTSIDE βW | SPECIAL MODEL Use a separate risk model before ranking or reform design | STUDY |
| — | Stablecoins & Shadow Banking | The Reserve Opacity Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional / Financial | INTRACTABILITY | STRUCTURAL SEPARATION Separate the conflicted role or ban the self-dealing structure | STUDY |
| — | Student Loan Securitization | The Securitization Extraction Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | DECISION RECORD Require a full decision record before the harmful transaction, approval, benchmark, or release | STUDY |
| — | Tax Havens and Offshore Finance | The Sovereignty Arbitrage | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Jurisdictional / Institutional | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Tobacco | The Addictive Commodity Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological | IMPOSSIBILITY | CONTROL PRICE Set the fee, tax, reserve, or fine from the measured welfare cost | STUDY |
| — | Topsoil Erosion | The Pedogenesis Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Geochemical | IMPOSSIBILITY | CAP OR MORATORIUM Limit or pause the activity until the system harm is measured and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Ultra-Processed Food | The Metabolic Engineering Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Biological | BOUNDARY | WATCHLIST Measured harm is low or neutral; keep monitoring source evidence | STUDY |
| — | Water Privatization | The Natural Monopoly Extraction Floor | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Institutional | INTRACTABILITY | LICENSE CONDITION Make the license depend on proof that system harm is recorded and controlled | STUDY |
| — | Weapons of Mass Destruction | The Capability Diffusion Ceiling | re-estimation required | pending reconciliation | re-estimation required | re-estimation required | Informational | OUTSIDE βW | SPECIAL MODEL Use a separate risk model before ranking or reform design | STUDY |
| ALL 61 VISIBLE STUDIED ROWS | — | re-estimation required | Public aggregate withheld pending admitted re-estimation. | |||||||
| OUTSIDE βW / System-Welfare-Adjusted GDP RANKED FRAME | — | re-estimation required | WMD: catastrophic-risk case; no commercial revenue base; Gene Drives: option-value catastrophic-risk case; no commercial market; Sovereign Debt: reported matched-flow candidate under source, denominator, period, and overlap review; no βW or ΔW value is released. | |||||||
| SYSTEM-WELFARE-ADJUSTED GDP RANKED TOTAL | — | re-estimation required | Ranked aggregate withheld pending admitted re-estimation; no legacy headline is released. | |||||||
HARM SEVERITY
V — EXTREMEβW > 35
IV — CRITICALβW 10–35
III — SEVEREβW 3–10
II — MODERATEβW 1–3
I — MILDβW ≤ 1
CONSTRAINT CATEGORY
Thermodynamic
Biological / Evolutionary
Geochemical
Physical
Institutional / Financial / Legal
Computational
Hydrogeological
Neurochemical
Informational
Jurisdictional
THEOREM TYPE
IMPOSSIBILITYPhysical, chemical, biological, or informational floor
INTRACTABILITYCurrent-game floor that can be changed by Decision Accounting, policy, or rules
TOP-15 CORELogical/mathematical — underpins all theorems
Π, pronounced capital pi, = annual industry revenue (Iron Law — never profit)
βW, pronounced beta W, = ΔW / Π · welfare-to-revenue ratio; ΔW means annual system-welfare loss
14 Impossibility · 30 Intractability · 14 Boundary · 15 core-route records
βW, pronounced beta W, = ΔW / Π · welfare-to-revenue ratio; ΔW means annual system-welfare loss
14 Impossibility · 30 Intractability · 14 Boundary · 15 core-route records
© 2026 Erik Postnieks · System Asset Pricing Model · All βW values revenue-denominated per Iron Law