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Methodology Manual

How to read welfare beta (βW).

Beta-W is the revenue-denominated welfare loading used in the System Asset Pricing Model. It asks how much annual system welfare is lost for each dollar of annual industry revenue. It is a measurement ratio for a defined activity boundary.

Open Domain TablesOpen aggregate evidence statusGlossaryResearch Evidence

Definition

Welfare beta (βW) = annual system-welfare loss (ΔW) / annual industry revenue (Π). βW is pronounced beta W. ΔW is pronounced delta W. Π is pronounced capital pi. The denominator is revenue, never profit. ΔW and Π must use the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary.

βW
Pronounced beta W. Annual system-welfare loss divided by annual industry revenue. The canonical formula is beta-W = annual system-welfare loss divided by annual industry revenue, with ΔW and Π drawn from the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary.
ΔW (delta W)
Annual system-welfare loss attributed to the domain model, stated in dollars per year.
Π (capital pi)
Annual industry revenue. Revenue is the denominator; profit, earnings, market capitalization, and transaction volume are not the canonical denominator.
βW — average vs. marginal
Two forms answer different questions. The average welfare beta, beta-W = ΔW / Π, divides a domain's total annual system-welfare loss by its total annual revenue; it is an accounting ratio and the form the Domain Tables and the welfare ledger use. The marginal, causal form, beta-W = −dW/dΠ, is the welfare destroyed by one more dollar of revenue at the current margin — the same quantity as the social cost of carbon — and is the form for a decision about changing activity, such as a corrective tax, which should equal marginal, not average, damage. The marginal form is estimated like any marginal external cost: a damage function per harm channel, identified with quasi-experimental variation and valued with consensus shadow prices.1

Point Estimates And Monte Carlo Re-estimation

Domain beta-W values remain withheld until the row has an admitted result. Its interval is the fifth-to-ninety-fifth percentile range from the declared simulation model; the result must carry source-backed channel inputs, an independently sourced denominator, matched activity boundary, dependence receipt, seed, draw count, packet/result hashes, and an independent rerun receipt.

The portfolio aggregate remains withheld pending evidence-backed re-estimation. A public aggregate interval requires a signed cross-domain overlap ledger, dependence model, and rerun receipt; those gates remain open.

Identification

ΔW is an accounting attribution of annual system-welfare loss to a domain on a matched revenue boundary, not a causal-identification estimate. The numerator and denominator must cover the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary; that discipline makes the row reconstructable, but it does not by itself prove that the revenue caused every dollar of loss.

Where the research program makes a causal or asset-pricing claim, it is stated separately and tested separately. The return-side companion paper, for example, uses a within-firm, firm-fixed-effects event study and reports the result narrowly: βW becomes return-relevant at legibility events, while the broad factor interpretation is rejected.

How To Read Table Rows

Measured domain row
A row with a defined annual industry revenue denominator and a beta-W / annual-loss treatment in Domain Tables.
Boundary / comparator row
A studied-domain row kept visible for auditability but separated because beta-W is below threshold, denominator treatment is limited, or the row is mainly comparative.

Reader Rule

Cite Domain Tables for canonical βW, Π, ΔW, Monte Carlo interval status, row status, and evidence routes. Treat public-paper prose, decks, and summaries as interpretive aids unless they route back to the table or study record. Do not create new βW values by swapping profit, margin, market capitalization, or transaction volume into Π.

NOTES & REFERENCES
  1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances (December 2023). link.