EVIDENCE NOTE
Aggregate system-welfare-loss evidence note
Current working estimate: $72.3T gross annual system-welfare damage; $69.0T after the $3.3T overlap adjustment.
URL note: the /evidence/73-7t/ address is historical. It remains as a stable evidence route for the current reconciled portfolio estimate.
Precision note: this is a reconciled working estimate, not a settled economic fact. Its gross figure is $72.3T annually; its net figure deducts a $3.3T overlap adjustment. WMD and Gene Drives lack a commercial revenue denominator, while Sovereign Debt remains under source, denominator, period, and overlap review. These boundary conditions define where the portfolio estimate is strongest and where further revision can occur.
This page gives the verification path for the aggregate claim. It states the release status, boundary, and audit route for the domain rows and source manuscript.
The underlying study record is the aggregate System Asset Pricing Model welfare-destruction manuscript in the Study Archive. This static evidence page exists so crawlers and public readers do not have to rely on the client-rendered study interface to verify the headline.
$72.3T/year
GROSS ANNUAL ESTIMATE
$69.0T/year
NET ANNUAL ESTIMATE
61
SYSTEM-WELFARE-ADJUSTED GDP RANKED ROWS
annual industry revenue
WELFARE-BETA DENOMINATOR
STATUS
Reconciled working estimate; external review open.
STUDY RECORD
The source manuscript is the aggregate System Asset Pricing Model welfare-destruction record in the Study Archive.
SCOPE
61 studied System Asset Pricing Model domains are visible in the table. The portfolio reports $72.3T gross annual damage and $69.0T after the $3.3T overlap adjustment. The System-Welfare-Adjusted GDP ranked total is 61; outside-frame rows remain visible for audit.
NUMERATOR
Annual system-welfare loss, written as ΔW (delta W), estimated for each domain.
DENOMINATOR
Annual industry revenue, written as Π (capital pi). Profit, earnings, market capitalization, or transaction volume are not valid welfare-beta denominators unless explicitly flagged as a noncanonical draft defect.
AGGREGATE RULE
The portfolio adds the reconciled domain estimates to $72.3T gross annual damage, then deducts the documented $3.3T overlap adjustment to report $69.0T net. The full 61-row audit keeps outside-frame rows separate from revenue-proportional βW rows.
OUTSIDE-ΒW ROWS
WMD has no commercial revenue base. Gene Drives is pre-revenue and has no commercial market. Sovereign Debt has a reported matched-flow candidate under source, denominator, period, and overlap review. No sovereign-debt value is released to the ranked total.
BOUNDARY ROWS
Boundary/comparator records remain visible because their welfare beta is below threshold, denominator treatment is limited, or the row is mainly comparative. They remain part of the 61 studied-domain corpus.
PEER-REVIEW STATUS
The estimate is public working-paper material, not settled economic canon.
HOW TO VERIFY
Start with the 61-domain table, where each visible row exposes welfare beta (βW), annual industry revenue (Π, capital pi), annual system-welfare loss (ΔW, delta W), and the status of any model-based p05–p95 interval, together with its evidence route. Then read the source manuscript record for the aggregate. Use the welfare-beta methodology manual for denominator discipline, canonical versus provisional row status, and the point-estimate caveat.
SOURCE MANUSCRIPT SUMMARY
The aggregate study record is the working-paper manuscript for the System Asset Pricing Model portfolio estimate. The estimate is constructed from reconciled domain records, then reported both before and after the documented overlap adjustment. Outside-frame rows remain visible for audit, including rows whose commercial-revenue denominator requires a different treatment.