Browse by subject:
Applied and bridge studies study record
Environment, climate & resourcesThe Rule Change
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
The contribution is a formalized method for transforming welfare-excluding games into welfare-including ones, with a theorem, proof sketch, and empirical calibration. It bridges mechanism design and systemic risk literatures, though external literature engagement is limited.
WHAT'S NEW · The Rule Change concept is original within the canon, synthesizing existing theorems (MST, DA, Conflictoring) into a unified transformation framework. The formal proposition and corollaries are new. The case studies apply the framework with original beta calculations. However, the core ideas are extensions of prior canon work, not entirely novel.
The paper formalizes the Rule Change as a shift from a welfare-excluding game to one that requires reconstructable decision records and enforcement lanes. Using the Missing System Theory and System Asset Pricing Model, it estimates $72 trillion in annual welfare destruction from Hollow Wins. Case studies on PBM insulin pricing, credit rating agencies, and Boeing 737 MAX illustrate how Decision Accounting and Conflictoring can transform flawed games into better equilibria.