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Applied and bridge studies study record
Security, crime & defenseMissing System Theory
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
Contributes a behavioral microfoundation for 'paper compliance' in defense procurement, linking officer incentives to cost overruns. The contribution is a testable hypothesis and empirical design, not a completed study. Scholarly contribution is moderate.
WHAT'S NEW · The application of the Missing System Theory to defense procurement is novel, but the theoretical mechanism is directly transferred from Postnieks (2019) without extension. The empirical design is standard and the results are illustrative. Originality is moderate.
This article proposes that defense procurement officers rationally over-invest in observable compliance documentation at the expense of unobservable system welfare, creating a 'Missing System Theory.' The authors test this mechanism using a falsifiable prediction: contracts over $10M in process-weighted evaluation regimes should have documentation cost ratios at least 0.15, compared to at most 0.05 in outcome-weighted regimes. The study uses archival data from FPDS, IG reports, and OPM to estimate these ratios. If confirmed, the trap implies that procurement reform must restructure officer incentives to include welfare metrics.