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Applied and bridge studies study record
Hollow Win theory & mechanismsPostnieks's Law: "Private Markets Cannot Price What They Collectively Destroy"
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
Provides a formal proof, empirical test, and policy framework. Bridges economic theory, institutional design, and empirical measurement.
WHAT'S NEW · Formalizes a named law with a proof from W-Independence, distinguishing it from Coase, Pigou, and Ostrom. The nine-word statement is counterintuitive and testable across domains.
Postnieks's Law states that private markets cannot price what they collectively destroy. The paper provides a formal proof from the W-Independence axiom, showing that system welfare is structurally excluded from bilateral pricing. Empirical evidence across 58 ranked revenue-ratio domains confirms the law's prediction, with welfare destruction ranging from 0.14 to 21.98 times industry revenue in the current revenue-ratio table. The policy implication is that welfare-preserving outcomes require durable institutional architecture outside bilateral exchange.