Browse by subject:
Applied and bridge studies study record
Other studiesValidity of the Hypergeometric Convergence Test: A Formal Defense of the Combinatorial Null in Cross-Regime Field Overlap Analysis
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
The paper provides the complete analytical foundation for the hypergeometric convergence test. The proofs are rigorous. The worked examples are illustrative
WHAT'S NEW · The hypergeometric distribution is the correct combinatorial null for the overlap-of-random-subsets problem in cross-regime field overlap analysis. The convergence statistic and inter-coder reliability are distinct; high cross-regime convergence does not prove that outside coders would reproduce every coding judgment. The convergence statistic is invariant under coder dependence given fixed regime vectors; coder dependence does not enter the hypergeometric null. The selection objection confuses selection on the independent variable (major regulatory regimes) with selection on the dependent variable (field overlap).
The paper defends the hypergeometric convergence test used in the Decision Accounting framework against three methodological objections: wrong test, coder dependence, and selection bias. It proves the test is correct, separates convergence from inter-rater reliability, shows coder dependence does not affect the null, and specifies a falsification condition. The convergence finding survives all objections.