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Applied and bridge studies study record
Public economics, trade & developmentThe Hollow Win
STATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
Contributes a new classification framework and impossibility theorem to negotiation theory, game theory, and institutional design. Bridges economics, law, and AI governance.
WHAT'S NEW · The three-dimensional outcome taxonomy (adding system welfare C) is a novel extension of bilateral negotiation frameworks. The Missing System Theory proving structural blindness to system welfare is original.
The paper introduces the Hollow Win taxonomy, a three-variable outcome classification that adds system welfare to the standard bilateral negotiation frame. The Missing System Theory proves that system welfare is structurally undetectable from agent payoffs, making Hollow Win outcomes invisible to existing frameworks. Six cartel cases and a reclassification of algorithmic collusion simulations demonstrate the taxonomy's diagnostic power. The Conflictoring protocol provides an eight-step detection and resolution procedure.