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Applied and bridge studies study record
Hollow Win theory & mechanismsCAPM as a Special Case of SAPM
CONTENT · Archive pendingSTATUS · Manuscript in progressSSRN · Not yet posted
Archive pending: this older foundational companion record is being superseded by the current top-100 core route. Treat the Decision Accounting papers, Missing System Theory papers, System Asset Pricing Model welfare ledger, and active core records as the production source of truth; use this record only as historical source material.
MECHANISM
Identify the incentive structure and the condition that would falsify the claim.
RULE CHANGE
Read the intervention only after the paper shows how the current payoff space fails to support system welfare.
READER USE
Use the summary to see where private gain creates system exposure, then check the study record.
Reading βW
βW means annual system-welfare loss divided by annual industry revenue Π. Revenue is the denominator, never profit, earnings, or net income; ΔW and Π must use the same domain, same time period, and same activity boundary. See the βW methodology manual.
Contribution — what this adds to the conversation
The paper establishes that the Sharpe–Lintner CAPM is the System Asset Pricing Model (SAPM) restricted to the regime in which the system-welfare factor carries zero price. The Missing System Theory (Postnieks 2026) characterizes that regime: in any bilateral payoff space the system welfare of the common C is excluded by construction, so its stochastic discount factor loading vanishes. Relaxing that restriction yields a two-factor model in which the market loading βᵐ and a system-welfare loading βᵂ both receive prices
WHAT'S NEW · CAPM is recovered by setting the system-welfare price to zero. The result separates return-risk beta from causal welfare beta so the pricing and policy measures are not fused. The welfare aggregate is explicitly planner-relative, not a market-identified CAPM error. The paper gives SAPM a canonical nesting relation to the asset-pricing monument.
Archive pending
Archive pending: this older foundational companion record is being superseded by the current top-100 core route. Treat the Decision Accounting papers, Missing System Theory papers, System Asset Pricing Model welfare ledger, and active core records as the production source of truth; use this record only as historical source material.
Use the theorem, source chapters, or teaching deck tabs for this work while the public summary is reconciled.