SSRN working paper · 2026 · not peer reviewed
The Missing System Theorem: The Limits of Welfare Recovery from Payoff-Space Information
Erik Postnieks
Question. Can information about represented parties’ payoffs reveal what happened to the surrounding system?
Method. Formal results define when system welfare can be recovered from a declared input. A constructed antimicrobial-resistance example shows the information problem in concrete terms.
Key finding. When two situations give represented parties the same payoffs but produce different system outcomes, a method using only those payoffs cannot distinguish them.
Evidence status. Formal argument and constructed example in a public working paper; not peer reviewed.
Read the paper and abstract on SSRN (external site)
SSRN working paper · 2026 · not peer reviewed
The Missing System Theorem: The Full Theory, Evidence, Measurement, and Design Program v2.6.5
Erik Postnieks
Question. What follows from the missing-system information problem across theory, evidence, measurement, institutional design, and possible field tests?
Method. The full paper develops the formal theorem chain, an antimicrobial-resistance witness, falsification conditions, a research registry, and a field-test design.
Key finding. The declared information determines system welfare only when every situation that looks identical under that information has the same system outcome; otherwise an additional distinguishing signal is required.
Evidence status. Formal synthesis, documented evidence, and a proposed field-test design in a public working paper; not peer reviewed.
Read the paper and abstract on SSRN (external site)
SSRN working paper · 2026 · not peer reviewed
The Hollow Win: When the Deal Works and the System Fails
Erik Postnieks
Question. How should an analyst describe an agreement that benefits every represented party while degrading the system around them?
Method. The paper adds the condition of a specified system to the familiar two-party scorecard, producing an eight-outcome taxonomy, and examines selected cases and a controlled pricing-agent experiment.
Key finding. A transaction can be a win for every represented account and a loss for the surrounding system. The paper calls that outcome a Hollow Win.
Evidence status. Case analysis and a controlled synthetic experiment in a public working paper; not peer reviewed. Independent real-world validation remains open.
Read the paper and abstract on SSRN (external site)